Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in India Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in India. The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 mortality in India is likely to equilibrate around 1313 deaths per day especially towards the end of the out-of-sample period. With the recent influx of new COVID-19 vaccines in India, great emphasis should be put on the quick uptake of these vaccines so as to curb the effects of the virus;and of course alongside ensuring strict adherence to COVID-19 safety measures.

Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Egypt Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Egypt. The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 related deaths in the country are likely to be around 80 deaths per day in the out-of-sample period. Amongst other policy recommendations, we strongly recommend that the government of Egypt should ensure strict adherence to lock-down measures while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Mortalities in the United States of America Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this research paper, the ANN approach was employed to analyze COVID-19 deaths in the United States of America (USA). The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate thatCOVID-19 deaths in the USA will continue to decline significantly in the out-of-sample period. Amongst other policy prescriptions, we strongly advise the US government to continue ensuring strict adherence to COVID-19 guidelines.

Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Mortalities in the United Kingdom Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in the United Kingdom (UK). The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate thatCOVID-19 deaths will be generally between 200 and 1000 deaths per day in the UK over the out-of-sample period. The UK government ought to be cautious, particularly in the relaxation of any controls. This will ensure that the most vulnerable members of society are protected, especially those with chronic conditions.

Modelling and Forecasting Covid-19 Fatalities in South Africa using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in South Africa. The employed data covers the period January – December 2020 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period January – May 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that that COVID-19 mortality in South Africa will basically range between 100 and 300 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of South Africa to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Jamaica

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Jamaica. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that the pandemic may vanish in May 2021 in the country. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Jamaica to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting TB Incidence in India Using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

India has a population of about 1.2 billion and is one of the Asian nations with a high TB disease burden. Modeling TB incidence is very important in order to assess the impact of TB control measures in the country. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze TB incidence in India. The employed annual data covers the period 2000-2018 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 2019-2023. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable in forecasting TB incidence in India. The results of the study indicate that TB incidence will remain high although a slight decrease is expected from 198 cases/100 000/year in 2019 to 198 cases/100 000/year in 2023. Therefore, the Indian government is encouraged to intensify TB surveillance and control programs despite the fact that it is currently battling COVID-19. If the government becomes complacent in the Control of TB, the country is likely to see a sharp increase in new TB cases hence increase in TB incidence over the period 2021-2023.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in South Sudan

When it comes to public health these days, COVID-19 is of serious concern and considered as the supreme crisis of the present era. A surge in the number patients testing positive for COVID-19 has created a lot of stress and frustration on governing bodies worldwide and they are finding it difficult to tackle the situation. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 case volumes in South Sudan. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in South Sudan for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in South Sudan. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in South Sudan are likely to decline to zero cases per day around early April 2021. The government of South Sudan should continue to ensure that there is compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on. There is also need to embrace the vaccination programme in the country.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Trinidad & Tobago

The need for forecasting the future trend of COVID-19 is at its highest levels now. Forecasting the disease progression will lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Trinidad & Tobago, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in the country. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Trinidad and Tobago for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new COVID-19 cases in Trinidad & Tobago. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Trinidad and Tobago are likely to remain high over the out-of-sample period. Relevant authorities, especially the ministry responsible for public health;have a big role to play in terms of controlling the further spread of the virus. There is need for continued implementation of control and prevention strategies in the country, especially the vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Ukraine

COVID-19 has already brought unprecedented challenges for public health and resulted in huge numbers of cases and deaths across the globe. In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine. This study is based on daily COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine for the period 1 January 2020 – 20 April 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 21 April – 31 August 2021.The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. It is projected that daily COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine are likely to remain high over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Ukraine to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic as well as scaling up vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Saint Lucia

Circulating globally, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause devastating mortality and is indeed a great threat to global public health. In this research paper, the ANN model was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Saint Lucia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model reveal that the model is quite stable. The results of the study reveal that daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia are likely to surge significantly until they reach an equilibrium case volume of approximately 408 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. The relevant authorities should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, alongside vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Uzbekistan

COVID-19 continues to significantly threaten human lives and economies around the globe. In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Uzbekistan for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan are likely to decline significantly over the out-of-sample period. The government should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, as well as vaccinations, in consistency with WHO guidelines on COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Sao Tome

The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was applied in this piece of work, to analyze COVID-19 daily cases in Sao Tome. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Sao Tome for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation statistics (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is adequate. The predictions show that daily COVID-19 cases in Sao Tome are generally likely to hover around an equilibrium case volume of about 24 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. However, the government of Sao Tome should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing as well as vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in South Korea

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to forecast the future trend of COVID case volumes in South Korea. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in South Korea for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is very stable and quite acceptable in forecasting COVID-19 infections in South Korea. The study suggests that the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is likely to follow a downwards trend over the out-of sample period. The South Korean government is encouraged to continue enforcing WHO guidelines on the prevention and control of the pandemic, including vaccinations and also people in the country are advised to continue behaving in a responsible manner with regards to face-mask wearing and following all sanitary rules put forward by WHO.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Haiti

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Haiti. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Haiti are likely to increase significantly over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Haiti to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Antigua and Barbuda

Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the globe, governments continue to be compelled to swiftly find solutions to reduce infections rates and keep mortality as low as possible. In the current study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and Barbuda. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Antigua Barbuda for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model show us that the model is stable and therefore adequate. The results of the study show that daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and Barbuda are likely to remain low over the out-of-sample period. The government of Antigua and Barbuda should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, in line with WHO stipulated guidelines.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Barbados

The crisis of COVID-19 is growing and has devastating implications for many countries around the world. In this research article, the ANN technique was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases based on new cases of COVID-19 in Barbados for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the employed model suggest that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Barbados. The results of the study imply that that daily COVID-19 cases in Barbados are likely to remain relatively low over the out-of-sample period. The government should continue to implement strong control and preventive measures in order to save lives despite the projected relatively low COVID-19 case volumes.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Albania

As COVID-19 rages throughout the globe, reliable modeling and forecasting of the dynamics thereof is critical. In this research work, the ANN technique was applied to forecast daily COVID-19 cases in Albania. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Albania for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the employed model suggest that the model is stable. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Albania are likely to remain very high over the out-of-sample period. We strongly recommend that the government of Albania should continue to ensure vaccine uptake and strict adherence to lock-down measures while creating awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Nepal

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Nepal. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April 2021 to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Nepal are likely to remain low over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Nepal to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and scale up COVID-19 vaccination.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Slovenia

The need for forecasting the future pattern of COVID-19 is at its highest levels now. Predicting the disease progression will lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Slovenia, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in the country. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Slovenia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new COVID-19 cases in Slovenia. It is projected the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to disappear in the country around mid-April 2021.There is, however, the need for continued implementation of control and prevention strategies in the country, especially the vaccinations. The public is also urged to exercise caution all the time and strictly adhere to sanitary rules established by WHO, in order to save lives.